The Dream Is Over

Yep ... you read it correctly. I have thrown in the towel on trading. I haven't officially quit, but the "What next?" search has begun.

First off, I have tried to post to my blog a couple of times within the last week or so, but the message gets lost and never gets posted. Of course, I have spent some time writing it and I don't feel like spending more time to rewrite, so I move on ... waiting for another day.

The last couple of trading days have been really difficult for me psychologically. Friday was probably my worst trading day ever, but not because I lost a lot of money. On a record day for the company, I ended up the day negative, one of only four traders in the entire firm to do so, and the only trader with more than 6 months experience. The IPO of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX) was a lay up trade that day. and I didn't participate. There were literally two dozen traders that made over $10K that day alone, and several traders that made over $50K. Why didn't I particpate? Because it was too risky ... too volatile. It sure was, but at some point I have to poke my head out of my shell and try to make something happen. I am still way too conservative and don't want to assume the risk. So, what the hell, then, am I doing in a profession that is full of risk all day, everyday? Good question. I'm a fish out of water ... that's for sure.

Because it was a record day, the company sponsored a happy hour after work. I wasn't even going to attend, but after talking to my wife, she urged me to go. Everyone was so happy and having a good time, but I was, well .... depressed. I have been trying to trade this new strategy and it just hasn't been going very well. I have made a couple of good trades with it, but the majority of the trades I make I think I see a good setup, but it ends up going in my face and I get stopped out. Shortly after I get stopped out, then, the stock proceeds to go in the direction of my original position. So, my stop is too tight, right? Well, the times I always loosen my stop seem to be the times the movement continues against me, so I incur a larger loss. It's like I am always wrong ... always ... with the worst luck you can possibly imagine.

Yesterday's trading was OK, but I think I was only up like $40 or something ... not even enough to cover my daily costs. Today started off good, but I self-destructed midday. I don't think I had a winning trade after 1oAM. I went from being up $100 to being down $150 in a couple blinks of the eyes and I left shortly after noon. The trades were more of the same as I described above. I keep thinking, "When is this going to change?", and it never does. Anyway, I wasn't having fun, so I left.

I am worn out. I have worked so hard to understand different trading ideas and techniques. I spend hours each night and on the weekends trying to get better. I build and modify my tickers to make them quieter in order to get better hits. I review charts constantly. I replay the bar chart action of certain stocks in the evenings to get used to how they look in real-time when a setup is forming. I honestly think I have done everything possible for me to succeed, and it hasn't happened.

I know there are several of you who will read this and say, "Here he goes ... whining again." But, for me, this post is different. I am depressed. I am failing miserably, and there is little hope, if any, left in my spirits. I know I put myself in this position, and I am responsible for my actions, but what was I going to do? Stay at my other job - disappointed, depressed, and hopeless. Well, at least I had a paycheck there. Now, I am feeling the same way with this job sans paycheck. This is great! What me makes think that I will feel differently about any other job I would do next? Is this the way my work life is going to be for the next couple of decades? If so, I don't think I can take it. Anyway, I am a failure ... who would want me to work for them anyway?

As much as a I want to end this post on a lighter note, I can't do it. My feelings are serious, and my outlook is serious. I don't know what I am going to do. I know there are people who love me and care for me, but I am having difficulty feeling those things for myself right now.

Coming up on the "Ocho"

First off, I want to thank everyone for attending the happy hour on Thursday. It was great to see all of you. RB ... thanks for organizing it and for the "hospitality". D-Kui .. I didn't get to talk to you, but I hope things are going well. I am sure we will talk soon. Hui ... sorry you couldn't make it. I was looking forward to hearing about your new changes. All in all, it seemed like everyone was enjoying work more than the "bad manager" times, so that is good. There still seemed to be that same ol' Corporate America B.S. going on, but at least now, everyone seemed to be able to tolertate it a little more. I hope things are able to continue.

So, for me, I am coming up on my 8th month anniversary of trading on November 6th. I have been down and then up and then back down again. It has definitely been a wild journey and I am sure it is only beginning. Again, there is so much psychology involved with this job, it is unbelievable. I am sure my biggest opponent is myself, and I am still tyring to compete with him. Regardless, I have learned a lot about myself, I still love the work, and I love the fact that I took this risk Times are tough, but better times are on the horizon.

My performance was mixed this week. I had a great day on Monday, but then stunk it up on Tuesday and Friday. The good news is I finally seem to have found a system I am comfortable trading. Recently, I have been reading some trading blog sites and have come across several which discuss "dummy" strategies that really make sense. A few of these sites are:

TraderMike
TraderX
DummyCharts
UglyCharts
Move The Markets

Unfortunately, trading these strategies can be difficult. Most of the traders writing these blogs pick about 10-15 stocks with the best potential for setups each day and monitor them like hawks, hoping that the strategies appear. With 7000 stock available to trade, this can equate to looking at the market through a straw, and can be frustrating when none of the setups appear.

If you remember from my last post, the IT staff has now granted me full access to program my own stock tickers, so I am now in the process of programming several of the strategies from the sites and creating my own tickers. The good news is I have already got some great hits and made some great trades from my tickers. The bad news is every 15 minutes I get blasted with 30-40 stocks that fit the entry criteria. This is way too many stocks and I can't possibly search through them all in time to make the trade. This basically equates to trying to drink from a firehose with pursed lips, and is really more frustrating than the scenario mentioned in the last paragraph. I can't tell you how many times the past couple of days I have seen a stock that makes a big move and that had a setup exactly what I was looking for. So, I go back and look at the ticker log, and sure enough, it came across but I missed it. This weekend I am spending some serious time trying to make my tickers less noisy and giving myself a better chance for success. Hopefully, I will find something that helps. If not, I will just have to keep looking.

I feel like I am right there ... almost ready to make it. But there is still a lot of work that has to be done. For the first time in 8 months, though, I feel like I have a strategy I can work with. There are thousands of people who trade the same strategy and have been doing it for years, so I don't think it is going to go away any time soon. And with the technology available to me to help find these opportunities, I feel like I will have an advantage once I get the noise turned down. So, once again, it is up to me to make things happen. And once again, I am not going to say I didn't make it because of lack of effort.

On a philosophical note, I want to share something that was presented to me this past week that really hit home. I actually heard it during a message at Gateway Church (a non-denominational Christian Church). I am not a member there, but my wife and I have been attending there recently because the messages seem like they have been delivered just for me and the situations I have been confronted with recently. Anyway, during the message, a quote by G.K. Chesteron was shared. Chesterton was a relatively modern theologian. I was not able to find the exact quote, but in summary, he wrote about the poet and the chess player and how they accept God, Christ, and the heavens. He said the poet is free-flowing and able to accept things more easily for what they are while the chess player is the calculated logician who must know exactly what the rules are and the possible outcomes for his/her actions. As a result, it is much harder for the chess player to come to accept Christ in his/her life.

After the quote was read, my wife nudged me and smiled. I am way too much the chess player when it comes to living life in general. I am over-analytical and look back way too much. I need to learn to become more free-flowing, like the poet, knowing that all that I need will be given to me. I really tried to think about that a lot this week as I traded, but one week is not going to be enough. I need to remember to let things happen and let unforeseen issues roll more easily down and off my back. The chess player definitely has his/her strengths and those strengths really thrive in a technological environment. But I have changed careers to one where, I believe, a poet thrives more. I need to learn to live life and work more like the poet if I am going to be successful with trading.

I hope everyone has a great week!