Still treading water .... but in a current (perhaps)

It sure doesn't feel like it has been two weeks since my last post, but I guess so. Time has certainly been flying, but there really haven't been any new revelations the past couple of weeks. The car is still broken. I still have my infection. My finger still hurts and I haven't gone to the doctor. The trip to the dentist resulted in $2k worth of work that I need to have done. The dog is most certainly going to have surgery to have her nail removed. Yeah ... life keeps moving along.

The trading thing has continued to be a roller coaster. I started doing a little better only to crash again late last week. I decided I was going to take a complete break this weekend, and then, not even trade today. Instead, my wife and I went to go get coffee this morning and take the dog for a run/walk down at Town Lake. That was nice, except for the fact the dog has to go after every bird that she sees. (We still love her though). I guess I was hoping that choosing a trading career and being successful would afford me more opportunities like this morning. Unfortunately, that hasn't turned out to be the case.

So, I suppose the main question is ... where am I headed? Well, for the most part, I am still treading water with trading. I am need to maintain the insurance from trading until I complete my dental work and finish with the latest round of doctor's appointments and prescriptions. If I switch jobs now, I don't know how the insurance thing works out. Would I have to go on COBRA? How much would that be? Is it even an option? If I find another job, would I have a waiting period with obtaining coverage? Can my wife add me to her insurance immediately or will there be a wait? There are too many questions to ask. It would just be easier for me to wait another 2 weeks until all these events are complete, and then start getting serious about switching jobs. However, I have been serious about looking for another job. Early last week, a potential opportunity was presented to me, and I am SERIOUSLY considering it .... almost to the point of certainty. The only thing making me reconsider is another opportunity that was brought to my attention late last week by someone at the trading firm. It is with a "hedge fund" type company here in Austin doing quantitative work. Honestly, the latter job would be a dream job for me, except I have to ask the question ... "What am I doing to help someone else?" Anyway, I am hoping to have a little bit better idea of where I am headed by my next post. Please keep your fingers crossed for me that this is sooner rather than later.

All in all, though, I am really starting to see this as truly being the beginning of the end. I am not really motivated anymore to try to make this trading thing work. I still love trading and think I always will, but I am a little bit tired of the fight right now. I am trying to be successful and trade in a way that is just not natural for me. Everyday I am trying to put bandaids over my weaknesses rather than building on my strengths, and quite frankly, I have reached that fatal point of frustration. However, though, I have to admit I am very proud of the risk I took to make a change in the first place. In all honesty, I would have been pretty much stuck with my new job at my former employer for the last year anyway. When I approached my new manager about a job change right before I left, she was hesitant. Partly because the group I was transferred into was new, and she was still looking for more people. I was told that I would have to wait at least 9 months before being able to look for something else within the company. All this made me feel as if I was trapped, so I felt I had to change. So, right now, I feel as if I am in pretty much the same position I would have been in had I remained with my former employer. Only with a new set of non-technology skills, and a lot less money :-).

I hate losing, and I don't like to admit defeat, but I have been fighting this "gorilla" for way too long. Hopefully, the fact that I was willing to take the risk in the first place is a bonus when I go to interview for my next job. I stepped out of my comfort zone, pursued something I was passionate about, and worked my butt off to be successful. Unfortunately, sometimes, hard work isn't always the determining factor between success and failure. In some cases it can come down to environment, support, training, and even natural ability. This type of trading just wasn't my calling.

The Big Down Day

So here I am ... awake at 3:30am on the morning after one of the biggest down days in the history of the stock market. Yeah, there is something bothering me. I have been saying for the past couple of months, "If only the market would go down, I would do much better. I am such the pessimist. I could do so well shorting stocks." Well, yesterday was my chance .... and, you guessed it, I blew it! While the market was going down shortly after lunch, what was I trying to do? Buy, of course. I thought I had figured out areas of support and was really optimistic they would hold, but nothing was holding yesterday. Yesterday's actiion fell in that strange .01% category where all actions of normalcy are thrown out the window. Other people certainly capitalized on the action, but again ... not me. Wouldn't you know it ... that is just my luck.

So, something woke me up this morning, and I couldn't go back to sleep. I think that something is called ... stress! I felt stress when I was at my former job, but this is stress on a whole new level. I feel like it is taking years off my life, and that is bad. I just don't know what the future holds. Like I have written the past couple of posts, money is getting extremely tight. My wife's birthday just passed and I couldn't even afford to get her a birthday present for crying out loud. That means no Christmas or Birthday present for her from me. What kind of husband am I? I feel like I am physically falling apart. I have been battling an infection now for over 3 months and can't seem to shake it. The doctors tell me it is nothing to be alarmed about, but it certainly affects my level of comfort on a daily basis. I jammed my finger with volleyball so bad about 3 weeks ago that I haven't been able to wear my wedding ring ever since. I almost feel like it is broken, but I haven't gone to see a doctor about it. Finally, a couple of days ago, the gums around one of my teeth starting swelling and causing me pain. I think I need to go to the dentist, but I can't really afford it. Then, there are the other little expenses that keep popping up. A couple of weeks ago, the window motor went out on my car. What does it cost to get something like that fixed on a 1991 Mazda RX7 convertible? Don't ask. Since those parts are hard to come by ... let's just say way too much. Not only that, but my mechanic thinks there are some serious electrical and mechanical problems with the car that may prevent it from passing inspection in the next couple of months. And the cost to fix these problems? Around $3K. Great! Then there are the problems with our dog, Sasha. She is still having problems with one of her nails that she ripped off a while ago. About every 6 to 8 months, it grows back crooked and she rips it off again. So we have to go to the vet and have it removed. That happened last week. Oh, and I can't forget taxes coming up. I didn't make hardly anything last year, but I know somehow, someway ... we will owe something and that will suck too. Oh, and then I can't forget the mental frustration and letdown I experience on a daily basis from trading. So, if you think things are going a little rough for you these days, just reread the paragraph above and perhaps that will make you feel a little better.

But enough of the "poor me". This blog is an avenue for me to vent these frustrations and I am thankful for that. However, I am old enough to realize that I am responsible for putting myself and my family in this situation, and I am mature enough to now realize I have got to get myself out of it. Part of what woke me up this morning was a calling to make a change. I think rather than trading today, I am going to spend the day modifying my resume and job searching. Again, I don't know exactly what I want to do, but maybe I will get a little better idea after a solid day of searching. I have thought about going back into the tech industry, but I question if I would really be any happier doing that than when I left. Not only that, but I have lost a year of building tech skills and would I even get hired with the few tech skills I have? I have looked at a couple of job postings online that sound interesting, but then I look at the skill requirements and say, "OK ... next". I would love to continue working in the financial industry, but I don't really have the formal financial education/training. Also. for any type of entry-level job in that industry I would have to look at moving to New York or Chicago, and I don't want to do that. A blend of the tech and financial would be interesting, but those jobs also seem to be few and far between in Austin. I honestly wouldn't mind looking for a service-type job where I would be helping other people. I suppose "waiter" would fall in this category, but I am thinking something else, like, perhaps, teaching again. It doesn't have to be teaching kids either. Perhaps I could perform education classes for a company. I don't know. I just feel like the past year of my life has been devoted too much to myself. I have been so self-absorbed in trying to figure out this trading thing that I haven't really contributed to society at all (except for volleyball). Actually, that could partly be said for my previous job as well. What have I done recently to make someone else better? There is this driving passion in me to educate and to help others out. I would really like to be able to do this with my next job. The question is: Given my strengths and experiences, what can I do for a living and accomplish this? Ideas, anyone?

Well, I am starting to get a little tired now. Maybe I should go back to sleep a little before getting up and starting the job search. No trading for me today, though. I do need to keep trading .. if nothing else to keep the insurance. Lord knows I need it with all of my "issues".

Like Trying To Untie a Big Frickin' Knot

By now, I am sure most of you are wondering, "What the hell happened? This guy hasn't posted in ages." I know ... I know. It's not so much that I have been that busy either. However, I am in the middle of volleyball season, and it seems like I am having to design practices nearly every other day. I think the real reason I haven't been blogging is because I have nothing different to say. It is pretty much the same song and dance I have been doing for the last 5 months: Break even days, break even months, and still no paycheck. Pretty depressing actually.

Here is a quick recap of the month of January:
Started out the month strong.
Gave a lot of what I made back the last week of the month.
For the 4th month in a row, I will not be receiving a paycheck, and really, I am no closer to having a system now than I was two months ago. It is definitely not for lack of effort. I am still coming home in the evenings and going over the simulators that run everyday, but I can't seem to find an edge. I have put all the data into Microsoft Access and built queries and reports to try to find something but .... nothing. Hence, the title for this blog entry. Have you ever had a knot that was so tight, you just couldn't get it out? You stare at it, and it looks really bad, and you don't even know where to start. Then you finally do start, and the knot is so tight you can't even budge it. Then, you get paperclips or other strong, thin items to try to loosen it, and you can't make progress. Frustrated, you leave the knot, only to come back to it at a later time, but unfortunately, encounter the same result. Eventually, you give up on the knot and realize you will have to replace the item. Well, that is about where I am at with my trading career.

I know several posts ago I wrote about my inevitable realization of not making it in trading. That was a couple of months ago. I still question what the heck I am doing going into work everyday trying to trade. I should be looking for another job and getting on with my life. But, it is just so hard for me to call it quits. I am stubborn and will keep fighting to the very end even if defeat is inevitable. Perhaps that is the competitor in me. There is still some part of me that thinks I can do this, and I want to keep trying but at some point I have got to look at the big picture. I am in my 11th month of trading. During that time I have made just under $6K. That is it! I made more in one month working at my former employer than I have for the past 11 months in this new career! I have burned through nearly all of my savings ( I just have a little over $5K left). My wife and I have sacrificed many things this past year, and quite frankly, I am tired of making the sacrifice, but something keeps me there. Maybe its the story of the 50-year-old former lawyer that gives me hope. This man had been with the company trading for 20 months. During that time he had 1 paycheck. He had $150K in savings that he burned through and was down to his last $10K. Last month, the man had his best month ever and took home a paycheck of over $20K. Something clicked for him and he was there to take advantage of it. Is my "click" just around the corner? The only way I know is if I stay and find out.

Don't get me wrong, I have been on the lookout for another job. It is just that I have no idea what I want to do. Heck, I was contemplating another job/career at my former employer ever since the settop box project I was working on got canned. That was 3 years! I remember waking up at 5:30am to go work out, and each morning I would think, "What else could I do for a living?" Finally, there was something I was so passionate about that I was willing to make the switch and take the risk, and what do you .... I am not very good at it. It is going to take me a little while to figure out what I could do next. Regardless of my performance, I still love trading. I love the challenge everyday and it keeps me thinking constantly. But, it doesn't pay the bills. When do I cry "uncle"?

So this has been my story for the past month, actually the past 4 months. I am getting a small paycheck from volleyball coaching and that is helping, but other than that, the well is beginning to run dry. Please wish me luck in the coming weeks and months. I need all the help I can get!

Better Luck in 2007?

Man ... it's been a long time since I've blogged. I suppose as a reader you could view that one of two ways:
1. No news is good news, or
2. If you don't have anything good to say, don't say it at all

As much as I wish I could say it was #1, I am pretty sure you could guess it is #2. Quite frankly, I am tired of chronicling my failures on a regular basis. The past 3 weeks of work have been nothing but disappointment. Add the holidays into the mix and another minor health scare, and the holidays have been emotionally draining. As optimistic as I was at the beginning of this year, I have to say that I am at the complete opposite end of the spectrum now that the year has come to an end.

I wrote several posts ago that I had pretty much realized that I wasn't going to make it in the trading game. I said I was starting to look for other jobs. However, being the stubborn German I am, I haven't given up that easily. I have kept "fighting" and trying to find something that will make me successful. However, my biggest enemy is myself and it's a battle I continuously lose. For 9 months now, I basically know what my problem has been, but I have not been able to change. I get into a trade where I know I need to change the way I normally think, but my "panic" instincts take over, I exit the trade too early and leave hundreds of dollars on the table. Day in and day out with pretty much no exceptions. Everyday I spend going over my botched trades swearing that tomorrow will be different. But the next day is just like the last. There are instincts as a trader that you need to have and no matter how hard I have worked to develop those instincts, I just don't seem to be able to. I have really started to believe a lot of the trading articles I have read concerning the innate ability to trade. Just like someone has the innate ability to play a professional sport or understand what it takes to be a software programmer, there is also that innate trader ability. I know what it is, I just can't seem to get it. You wanna know what it is? OK, here it is.

The innate trader ability is to remain convicted in your beliefs and follow your system, even ... no, especially, in the face of apparent failure. Having grown up playing and coaching sports for many years, I have really learned to hate losing, but it is something that you have to deal with. As a coach, I have coached different caliber of teams. I have coached ones that are athletically gifted and driven and believe they will always find a way to win. I have coached some that are athletic and successful, but when their backs are against the wall, it is easier to accept failure rather than put their heart out on the line and believe they can win. I have also coached teams that aren't athletic, that play for the fun of it, andd believe they never have a chance at winning anything. They give up easily and expect failure.

I believe my trading falls somewhere between the second and third teams I mentioned above. I don't think I have the best mind for trading, but I think I do see patterns and tendencies in charts that other people don't. In fact, I helped a very successful and experienced trader make about $3k on Thursday when I pointed out a chart pattern that was forming. He agreed, got into the position, and made money. I sat on my hands and afterwards berated myself for not believing in my abilities. So, problem number 1: I see opportunities, but fail to act. Why do I fail to act? Probably because I don't want to lose or fail. But, dealing with losing is part of this game. Which leads to problem number 2, and the biggest reason I haven't been successful. As soon I get into a position, I look for a reason to get out. At the first sign of failure, I typically give up and don't stay in the position and fight -- I am like the second team I mentioned. In volleyball, a game is played to 25. The way I trade is equivalent to a team in volleyball being down 5 to 0 and saying, "You know what, we can't come back. Let's just quit." So the team walks off the court. However, everyone knows there is a lot more game to be played and anything can happen until the score reaches 25. Similarly, when I am actually profitable in a trade, it's like I am up 5 to 0 and say, "OK, I've won", and I walk off the court. So why do I "walk off the court" in my trades? That is pretty simple. I monitor the "Level 2" window way too much. The "Level 2" windows show all the market participants and their interest in a particular stock. This window is like the fans at a sporting event. Basically, I let the fans dictate whether I stay in or leave the game. How stupid is that? I should only let the score (or actual trades being made) determine whether I remain in the game or not.

This all sounds pretty simple, but putting it into practice has been very difficult for me. It is so easy in trading to get caught up in things that have nothing to do with the system you are trading. The good traders maintain focus and in the face of "unruly fans" stay convicted and believe in what they are doing. Here is hoping that the light bulb will come on for me in the next few weeks.

So, how much longer am I giving myself? Well, the savings are running out quickly. As I see it, I have about 2 to 3 more months before I am really pushed into dire straights. I am receiving some income from coaching volleyball and that will help, but it will definitely not be enough. I have said this before, but what would really keep me in the game is finding some type of part-time job. I just don't know what I would want to do. Then, there is the inevitable fact that I may need to find a real job in 2 to 3 months. I have NO idea what I want to do. Trust me ... I have thought about this a lot, and have no idea. Maybe I need to spend more time thinking about this than I do. But the second I do that, I will most certainly seal my fate.

So, 2006 .... not necessarily a "dream year" for me. There have been a lot of difficulties, but I have enjoyed the job and all the challenges it presents. I am just disappointed I am not more successful in it than what I am.

I hope everyone had a great Holiday Season. Have a Happy New Year and I will be back in 2007. New Year ... New Luck ... let's hope.

Wouldn't you know ....

First off, I want to thank everyone who wrote comments on my last post. Thanks for taking the time to write something and for all the encouraging words. They are much appreciated. I have realized that there isn't quite something right with me and have made arrangements to get some help. I owe it to everyone, including myself, to do so. Who knows ... maybe a few drugs won't be so bad after all.

After this past week, I have realized a couple of things outside the obvious that have led me to where I am. First, about two months ago, I switched where I was sitting because my coach had a new student coming in. I moved to the other half of the office floor - the half my coach refers to as the "Library". Most of the traders on the side I moved to were hyper-scalpers. They have to focus intensely for short periods of time, but always have to be ready for the opportunities when they arise. The side I came from mainly has position traders (which I am). The traders need to focus but it is a much more relaxed atmosphere. The traders put on a position, put in their stops and let their systems work for them. As a result, the mood is a lot more light-hearted on this side. In fact, my coach likens it to a "good bar" - you just want to keep coming back. Well, late last week, I realized I had to change something because my performance since the switch to the "library" had been crappy. Last Tuesday, I moved back to the "good bar." And whaddya know ... three out of the last 5 days since have been my highest days in the last 3 months. I trade much more relaxed at "the bar." So, I guess you can say I returned home, and it has helped me.

Hindsight being 20/20, I suppose I am a little upset with myself for trading at the "library" for as long as I did. I realized early on that I wasn't having as much fun but I continued to stay there. In fact, I can't remember laughing once. I sat next to a guy who was a great trader, but he was so stoic that I can probably count on one hand how many times I saw him even smile. The guy was just out of college and making $3K/day on average, and it didn't look like he was having fun at all. I think I also resented the fact that he was constantly asking questions about my system and why I was trading what I was trading. Yet, whenever I asked him for "help", he was always brief and seemed disinterested in helping me. Although I tried to block it out, subconsciously, I believe it took its toll on me.

So, I am back at the "bar" - happier and performing better. The one main thing the "bar" has going for it is one trader ("patron"), in particular, who may be one of the funniest people I have ever met. The guy continuously spouts off one-liners all day that keep a smile on people's faces and the mood light. I guess humor runs in his family because his sister is actually a touring professional comedian. Anyway, I am glad I decided to switch back. I feel a lot better, and if I am not making enough money to survive, well ... at least I am getting a good laugh everyday.

So, does this mean the dream is still alive? Not quite. I have been looking for other jobs, but nothing has hit me yet. I don't think I want to go back into the software industry unless it could be with financial or trading software. I have thought about possibly going back into teaching, but having to deal with kids all day doesn't necessarily appeal to me at this point in my life. I wouldn't mind being some type of trading instructor. After all, those who can't "do", teach ... right? The only problem is I think those kind of jobs are few and far between. I have proven over several months that I can spot good trades and call them out to others who take advantage of them. I just don't want to take the risk myself. Maybe I can be entrepreneurial and setup my own daytrading chat room service or something like that. Or maybe I can do the same thing with options. Regardless, I really like the financial industry and all the challenges that it presents. I would like to continue in this field with my next job. I just don't know what I could do though.

Speaking of the industry and the market, up until this point, I have really refrained from sharing my view with where the market is headed in the immediate future. However, I think there are so many things brewing right now that spell disaster that I want to share them with those of you who may not follow these things as closely. In fact, I think sometime after the first of the year, between January and March, we could be in for some tough times downward. So, take this for what it is worth. I am not recommending anything, so decide for yourself what an appropriate action should be.

There were four events that took place last week which, after today, the market has basically shrugged off. The first event was the collapse of the dollar. This means several things. First, the US market may be up 14% this year, but to foreigners, particularly those using Euros, the market is only up a measly 5%. Those foreigners might be inclined to pull their money out of the US markets if they feel they can get a better return somewhere else. Then, you have the problem with US treasuries and bond rates. If the dollar is collapsing and foreign governments aren't getting a good return rate with US bonds, something may have to give. Basically, the dollar right now is in really bad shape and that does not bode well for the US economy.

Secondly, last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) warned that the U.S. factory sector contracted in November for the first time in more than three years. This means the US economy could be softening so much that the Federal Reserve might have to cut interest rates to stimulate demand. The Fed may cut and they may not. If the Fed lowers rates again, the dollar will most likely weaken even further, and inflation will likely explode.

Third, a drop in construction spending was announced. This was the seventh month in a row and the longest on record. The housing sector was a big reason for the bull market over the past couple of years, and with a drop in spending this means fewer construction jobs, which leads to the next item.

Fourth, the number of U.S. workers applying for jobless benefits saw its biggest increase in more than a year last week, according to Labor Department. Bad news.

So, with all this staring investors in the face, why on earth did the market rise strongly today? Simple, it is the end of the year, and there are bonuses at stake for a lot of people in the financial industry (not me of course). For this reason, I really don't think the market is going to fall between now and the end of the year. But come January. look out.

I read an article last night which was written probably sometime in early October which talked about a possible recession happening the beginning of next year. Here is the link. Now, two months later and given the events listed above, things are really starting to take shape. Once again, I am not telling anyone to do anything, but if things start going south, you can say you read it here first. If not, well, I guess it will just prove to all of you and myself, that I have no idea what I am talking about and I have no business working in this industry (even if I like it so much).

The Dream Is Over

Yep ... you read it correctly. I have thrown in the towel on trading. I haven't officially quit, but the "What next?" search has begun.

First off, I have tried to post to my blog a couple of times within the last week or so, but the message gets lost and never gets posted. Of course, I have spent some time writing it and I don't feel like spending more time to rewrite, so I move on ... waiting for another day.

The last couple of trading days have been really difficult for me psychologically. Friday was probably my worst trading day ever, but not because I lost a lot of money. On a record day for the company, I ended up the day negative, one of only four traders in the entire firm to do so, and the only trader with more than 6 months experience. The IPO of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX) was a lay up trade that day. and I didn't participate. There were literally two dozen traders that made over $10K that day alone, and several traders that made over $50K. Why didn't I particpate? Because it was too risky ... too volatile. It sure was, but at some point I have to poke my head out of my shell and try to make something happen. I am still way too conservative and don't want to assume the risk. So, what the hell, then, am I doing in a profession that is full of risk all day, everyday? Good question. I'm a fish out of water ... that's for sure.

Because it was a record day, the company sponsored a happy hour after work. I wasn't even going to attend, but after talking to my wife, she urged me to go. Everyone was so happy and having a good time, but I was, well .... depressed. I have been trying to trade this new strategy and it just hasn't been going very well. I have made a couple of good trades with it, but the majority of the trades I make I think I see a good setup, but it ends up going in my face and I get stopped out. Shortly after I get stopped out, then, the stock proceeds to go in the direction of my original position. So, my stop is too tight, right? Well, the times I always loosen my stop seem to be the times the movement continues against me, so I incur a larger loss. It's like I am always wrong ... always ... with the worst luck you can possibly imagine.

Yesterday's trading was OK, but I think I was only up like $40 or something ... not even enough to cover my daily costs. Today started off good, but I self-destructed midday. I don't think I had a winning trade after 1oAM. I went from being up $100 to being down $150 in a couple blinks of the eyes and I left shortly after noon. The trades were more of the same as I described above. I keep thinking, "When is this going to change?", and it never does. Anyway, I wasn't having fun, so I left.

I am worn out. I have worked so hard to understand different trading ideas and techniques. I spend hours each night and on the weekends trying to get better. I build and modify my tickers to make them quieter in order to get better hits. I review charts constantly. I replay the bar chart action of certain stocks in the evenings to get used to how they look in real-time when a setup is forming. I honestly think I have done everything possible for me to succeed, and it hasn't happened.

I know there are several of you who will read this and say, "Here he goes ... whining again." But, for me, this post is different. I am depressed. I am failing miserably, and there is little hope, if any, left in my spirits. I know I put myself in this position, and I am responsible for my actions, but what was I going to do? Stay at my other job - disappointed, depressed, and hopeless. Well, at least I had a paycheck there. Now, I am feeling the same way with this job sans paycheck. This is great! What me makes think that I will feel differently about any other job I would do next? Is this the way my work life is going to be for the next couple of decades? If so, I don't think I can take it. Anyway, I am a failure ... who would want me to work for them anyway?

As much as a I want to end this post on a lighter note, I can't do it. My feelings are serious, and my outlook is serious. I don't know what I am going to do. I know there are people who love me and care for me, but I am having difficulty feeling those things for myself right now.

Coming up on the "Ocho"

First off, I want to thank everyone for attending the happy hour on Thursday. It was great to see all of you. RB ... thanks for organizing it and for the "hospitality". D-Kui .. I didn't get to talk to you, but I hope things are going well. I am sure we will talk soon. Hui ... sorry you couldn't make it. I was looking forward to hearing about your new changes. All in all, it seemed like everyone was enjoying work more than the "bad manager" times, so that is good. There still seemed to be that same ol' Corporate America B.S. going on, but at least now, everyone seemed to be able to tolertate it a little more. I hope things are able to continue.

So, for me, I am coming up on my 8th month anniversary of trading on November 6th. I have been down and then up and then back down again. It has definitely been a wild journey and I am sure it is only beginning. Again, there is so much psychology involved with this job, it is unbelievable. I am sure my biggest opponent is myself, and I am still tyring to compete with him. Regardless, I have learned a lot about myself, I still love the work, and I love the fact that I took this risk Times are tough, but better times are on the horizon.

My performance was mixed this week. I had a great day on Monday, but then stunk it up on Tuesday and Friday. The good news is I finally seem to have found a system I am comfortable trading. Recently, I have been reading some trading blog sites and have come across several which discuss "dummy" strategies that really make sense. A few of these sites are:

TraderMike
TraderX
DummyCharts
UglyCharts
Move The Markets

Unfortunately, trading these strategies can be difficult. Most of the traders writing these blogs pick about 10-15 stocks with the best potential for setups each day and monitor them like hawks, hoping that the strategies appear. With 7000 stock available to trade, this can equate to looking at the market through a straw, and can be frustrating when none of the setups appear.

If you remember from my last post, the IT staff has now granted me full access to program my own stock tickers, so I am now in the process of programming several of the strategies from the sites and creating my own tickers. The good news is I have already got some great hits and made some great trades from my tickers. The bad news is every 15 minutes I get blasted with 30-40 stocks that fit the entry criteria. This is way too many stocks and I can't possibly search through them all in time to make the trade. This basically equates to trying to drink from a firehose with pursed lips, and is really more frustrating than the scenario mentioned in the last paragraph. I can't tell you how many times the past couple of days I have seen a stock that makes a big move and that had a setup exactly what I was looking for. So, I go back and look at the ticker log, and sure enough, it came across but I missed it. This weekend I am spending some serious time trying to make my tickers less noisy and giving myself a better chance for success. Hopefully, I will find something that helps. If not, I will just have to keep looking.

I feel like I am right there ... almost ready to make it. But there is still a lot of work that has to be done. For the first time in 8 months, though, I feel like I have a strategy I can work with. There are thousands of people who trade the same strategy and have been doing it for years, so I don't think it is going to go away any time soon. And with the technology available to me to help find these opportunities, I feel like I will have an advantage once I get the noise turned down. So, once again, it is up to me to make things happen. And once again, I am not going to say I didn't make it because of lack of effort.

On a philosophical note, I want to share something that was presented to me this past week that really hit home. I actually heard it during a message at Gateway Church (a non-denominational Christian Church). I am not a member there, but my wife and I have been attending there recently because the messages seem like they have been delivered just for me and the situations I have been confronted with recently. Anyway, during the message, a quote by G.K. Chesteron was shared. Chesterton was a relatively modern theologian. I was not able to find the exact quote, but in summary, he wrote about the poet and the chess player and how they accept God, Christ, and the heavens. He said the poet is free-flowing and able to accept things more easily for what they are while the chess player is the calculated logician who must know exactly what the rules are and the possible outcomes for his/her actions. As a result, it is much harder for the chess player to come to accept Christ in his/her life.

After the quote was read, my wife nudged me and smiled. I am way too much the chess player when it comes to living life in general. I am over-analytical and look back way too much. I need to learn to become more free-flowing, like the poet, knowing that all that I need will be given to me. I really tried to think about that a lot this week as I traded, but one week is not going to be enough. I need to remember to let things happen and let unforeseen issues roll more easily down and off my back. The chess player definitely has his/her strengths and those strengths really thrive in a technological environment. But I have changed careers to one where, I believe, a poet thrives more. I need to learn to live life and work more like the poet if I am going to be successful with trading.

I hope everyone has a great week!